How We Estimated India’s After-School Economy

In short

The estimate starts from 24.69 crore school enrolments (UDISE+ 2024–25) and models paid activity participation of 4.3–6.7% at average fees of ₹15,000–24,000 a year. That gives about ₹15,750–39,600 crore, with a central scenario of about ₹26,300 crore. Participation and fees are our assumptions, not measured figures.

1. The model

We begin with 24.69 crore recognised-school enrolments¹ and model different rates of paid activity participation and annual spending.

School enrolments24.69 crUDISE+ 2024–25

In a paid activity≈5.5%assumed · 1.35 cr enrolments

Average annual fee₹19,500assumed

Central scenario₹26,300 cra year

2. Three scenarios

Scenario	Paid activity enrolments	Share of school enrolment	Average annual fee	Estimate
Low	1.05 crore	≈4.3%	₹15,000	₹15,750 crore
Central	1.35 crore	≈5.5%	₹19,500	₹26,300 crore
High	1.65 crore	≈6.7%	₹24,000	₹39,600 crore

3. What is measured, and what is assumed

School enrolment is based on UDISE+ 2024–25. Participation and fee assumptions are Lunar estimates and should not be interpreted as nationally measured figures.

The enrolment base includes pre-primary classes inside schools. Children not in recognised schools, and adults, are not included, so the model says nothing about adult participation.

An enrolment is one paid activity, not one child. A child learning both dance and swimming counts twice.

The provider estimate in The people teaching India after school splits the central scenario’s 1.35 crore enrolments between solo teachers and mid-sized academies, giving about 2.25 lakh solo teachers and 32,000 academies. It is a modelled shape of the market, not a count.

4. What would improve it

A national survey question on paid activity classes, alongside the existing questions on school fees and coaching, would replace our two biggest assumptions with measured data.

As better primary data becomes available, we will update the model.